Wednesday, March 06, 2024

It's doing that thing again...

Every few years I think to myself: here we go again: Bitcoin is doing that thing where the price goes up, news stories get written about how the Bitcoin price is at an all-time high, more people get excited about it because the price is going up, driving it even higher, making more people excited...

... until something bad happens or speculators get bored and decide to cash out and buy something else they think will be The Thing.

I'm thinking that's happening right now. And I think it will happen again in a few years; I'm not sure the Bitcoin price will ever be stable if it just functions as a place to park I-don't-know-what-to-spend-it-on-right-now wealth.

Thirteen years ago, when one BTC was selling for under a dollar, I said:

"There's a small possibility that in 50 years Bitcoin replaces the dollar as the world's reserve currency."

Today I think I'd say "significant possibility." And I think there is a pretty high chance some cryptocurrency or basket of cryptocurrencies replaces the US dollar as the world's reserve currency in the next forty years.