tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12429580.comments2024-03-17T11:07:27.925-04:00GavinThinkGavin Andresenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10105284501947275111noreply@blogger.comBlogger611125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12429580.post-25335933691637964372024-03-17T11:07:27.925-04:002024-03-17T11:07:27.925-04:00I think to be 100% stable (or close to it) and pop...I think to be 100% stable (or close to it) and popular, a cryptocurrency should have some kind of rule where the monetary mass can expand according to the number of participants in it, and where new currency units are somehow distributed to all as a universal dividend. More participants = more money creation distributed to all. Fewer participants = slower money growth.<br /><br />The universal dividend makes lowers the entry barrier for newcomers, while the relative growth % ensures (in theory) that the currency is neither deflationary nor inflationary.<br /><br /><br />Some people have theorised such a thing under the "relative theory of money".Stan Jourdanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17432844190269597029noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12429580.post-4679461473201907562024-03-13T10:02:15.480-04:002024-03-13T10:02:15.480-04:00I don't think it will ever be 100% stable rela...I don't think it will ever be 100% stable relative to some broad measure of purchasing power, because I think economic activity will continue to grow but the supply of BTC will not. BTC is destined to be deflationary as long as it is a popular way to park wealth.<br /><br />But if it is popular enough, it will be stable enough to be the world's reserve currency. After all, the US dollar is not stable either-- it is just more popular and more stable than the alternatives.<br /><br />If (when?) somebody figures out how to implement a "flatcoin" that is ~100% stable <i>and</i> figures out how to make it popular, that might be an even more attractive reserve currency than deflationary BTC.Gavin Andresenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10105284501947275111noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12429580.post-69440570171591845162024-03-13T03:55:46.897-04:002024-03-13T03:55:46.897-04:00do you think Bitcoin price will ever be stable, if...do you think Bitcoin price will ever be stable, if so, what might be the causes. if not, will its volatility prevent it to be the world's reserved currency? haochenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09002894053723091777noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12429580.post-86491576874567307682022-02-20T10:57:44.819-05:002022-02-20T10:57:44.819-05:00Increasing air exchange in buildings improves huma...Increasing air exchange in buildings improves human health and function. While carbon dioxide is not toxic in itself. Too much of it in the air supply is debilitating. Not so much about sucking CO2 out as getting level that is optimum to breath. I agree that improving building air quality could be more effective at improving human health and resilience toward respiratory disease like Covid and Flu. <br /><br />I am just beginning to learn about blockchain. I heard or read somewhere you contributed to the development of bitcoin. Then I read your comments to the school board. I’m in complete agreement. <br /><br />Do you think Bitcoin, etc and blockchain technology can become an alternative currency?Tim Holcombhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11463865511332288230noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12429580.post-48080334070134774402022-02-16T14:59:08.085-05:002022-02-16T14:59:08.085-05:00RE: removing CO2 from building air: CO2 isn't ...RE: removing CO2 from building air: CO2 isn't harmful to us, so health-wise I don't think that makes sense. But if there is a system for doing carbon-capture that has to suck in a lot of air, it might make sense to suck it out of buildings to improve indoor air quality as a side benefit.<br /><br />RE: using a cryptocurrency for ... stuff ... I dunno. I tend to be pretty skeptical, it seems like a lot of schemes for using a blockchain and/or token for carbon offsets or regenerative food systems or (insert buzzwords here) just add complexity for no clear benefit.<br />Gavin Andresenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10105284501947275111noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12429580.post-126887951743942142022-02-16T14:50:36.109-05:002022-02-16T14:50:36.109-05:00Do you think a cryptocurrency could be directly ti...Do you think a cryptocurrency could be directly tied to carbon counting? Removing carbon dioxide from building air could be counted and lead to measurable improvements in occupant health thus saving public health costs, also potentially measurable.<br />Carbon counting can extend to regenerative agriculture that sequesters carbon in the soil helping to mitigate climate change while enriching the soil for more nutrient rich robust plant life which needs less synthetic and costly inputs to yield far healthier food to be consumed. How many of the the co-morbidities associate with Covid deaths are caused toxins in our food? Environmental and human health benefits are positive outcomes from measuring carbon. Fossil fuel consumption can also be quantified by measuring carbon. Could a cryptocurrency be used to both measure and fund building heating, energy and air supply, regenerative food system, and fossil fuel reduction. <br />Carbonco has digitized carbon offsetting but could it go further?<br />Tim Holcombhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11463865511332288230noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12429580.post-60270231046664763292022-02-16T02:19:04.310-05:002022-02-16T02:19:04.310-05:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03688929008965081423noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12429580.post-43487866140529387242021-12-16T03:04:43.342-05:002021-12-16T03:04:43.342-05:00I miss your posts on Twitter and i love you 🥺🥺I miss your posts on Twitter and i love you 🥺🥺Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07132390283498194205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12429580.post-12465613440252363772021-10-31T22:24:27.423-04:002021-10-31T22:24:27.423-04:00History. Well done Gavin.History. Well done Gavin.Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15443959877072678456noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12429580.post-12961749098734011642021-09-06T09:12:44.644-04:002021-09-06T09:12:44.644-04:00Really interesting view about taxation, but in my ...Really interesting view about taxation, but in my view, it only solves the problem about inequiality at the indivual level. Surely that´s a big problem, but it doesn´t solve the biggest part of taxation inequality. That is the bussines level, the big corporations as we know are the real benefactors of the taxations system, the game has lots of loopholes and they go for it. That´s not their fault, but it need to be solve. <br />That been said, your post talks about the taxations on the sells, but the starter problem could be in the very beginning of the process, the buys. For example, the prices where the companies buys the items they sell (taiwanese, chinese...) are really low compare with were the individual people buy their stuff (USA...). In that case you will have very different median prices between the people and the companies. Of course you could adjust the prices to the CPI in the respective country but, in this case, you will have to change the taxation for the companies at least, every month.<br />In conclusion it could be a very good start, but only that, a start. It wont solve any real problem unless it touch at least every player of the game.Alirtohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04164731162871016264noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12429580.post-36514667850527577922021-05-18T13:26:30.094-04:002021-05-18T13:26:30.094-04:00Are you still give 5 BTC for free to play with? :D...Are you still give 5 BTC for free to play with? :D <br />I love the energy you had in this post! I'm curious how old you were that moment!Wael matarhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03152293293623821851noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12429580.post-721188017842742562021-04-30T09:30:37.042-04:002021-04-30T09:30:37.042-04:00I'm a programmer, working with blockchain/smar...I'm a programmer, working with blockchain/smart contracts and learning more about all developers who help in bitcoin source. I found you. And see this post is like see the first page of diary of Michael Jackson saying "Maybe I make some musics...". You did a "big thing" Gavin, really! Thanks!ONhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08421790811282537388noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12429580.post-80194911551167934432021-04-18T08:17:54.778-04:002021-04-18T08:17:54.778-04:00The only issue I found with this scheme is that ch...The only issue I found with this scheme is that cheap stuff is not always better for the environment or for health, most environmental friendly products cost higher than the median, but are better (products with recyclable parts, repairable products, natural food).<br /><br />The other issue, that cannot be solved, is that the state does not focus on having a better world, they are ruled by billionaires that can block this kind of changes.El_Hoyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15783880007438274437noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12429580.post-78634557909119854552021-02-25T17:30:52.904-05:002021-02-25T17:30:52.904-05:00Brilliant idea. There's no reason this shouldn...Brilliant idea. There's no reason this shouldn't be implemented, we're sick of hearing the argument "then billionaires will go spend their money elsewhere" we all know that's nonsense, they'll play by the rules because that's how they stay on top.<br /><br />Also really just commenting to thank you on your contributions to crypto =)Brunhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02379676783287425518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12429580.post-80284045240403420612021-02-07T07:51:48.930-05:002021-02-07T07:51:48.930-05:00On this prediction (bitcoin being the currency tha...On this prediction (bitcoin being the currency that the world needs) you got it right, sir. I'm sorry I didn't find out about your blog earlier :)<br />VioBumbehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15207862781823349840noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12429580.post-8545375141539967152021-01-10T11:01:24.363-05:002021-01-10T11:01:24.363-05:00The vaccine will (happily) derail your prediction ...The vaccine will (happily) derail your prediction for COVID. But science hasn't developed a cure for death by old age yet, so prediction #5 looks like a good bet.the patrollerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08143580278130182280noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12429580.post-36498773622537129242020-12-16T23:08:29.183-05:002020-12-16T23:08:29.183-05:00I think Gavin is correct. He can do a lot more tha...I think Gavin is correct. He can do a lot more than math, and if you have that little faith in his ability to research, calculate, and try to see things from every angle even yours, your assumptions are incorrect. I think it would be foolish to avoid vaccination at this point. There is a lot of scientific evidence as well as practical application evidence to back up the broad effectiveness of vaccination.Probliticshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07474759193748344200noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12429580.post-44967758303550408712020-08-02T14:25:28.100-04:002020-08-02T14:25:28.100-04:00That lower court decision was reversed in the Germ...That lower court decision was reversed in the German Supreme Court in 2017 when two independent labs were used instead of a court-appointed expert as in the lower court. <br /><br />>The evidence for viruses and the effectiveness of vaccines is overwhelming.<br /><br />All evidence is overwhelming when you don’t use negative control experiments. Read the June 2020 piece I linked to. It should blow your mind. You shouldn't have faith in "science." Look at the experiments for yourself. <br /><br />“Virologists believe in viruses, because they add to the tissue and cell culture allegedly infected blood, saliva or other body fluids—after having withdrawn the nutrients from the respective cell culture and after having started poisoning it with toxic antibiotics. They believe that the cell culture is then killed by viruses. However, the death of the tissue and cells takes place in the exact same manner when no “infected” genetic material is added a all. The virologists have apparently not noticed this fact. According to the scientific logic and the rules of scientific conduct, control experiments should have been carried out. In order to confirm the newly discovered method of “virus propagation,” in order to see whether it was not the method itself causing or falsifying the result, the scientists would have had to perform additional experiments, in which they would add sterile substances or substances from healthy people and animals to the cell culture. <br /><br />These control experiments have never been carried out but the official “science” to this day.”<br /><br />—Stefan Lanka, June 2020mmhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03730003256289638920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12429580.post-42641924720949767022020-08-02T13:57:16.338-04:002020-08-02T13:57:16.338-04:00The evidence for viruses and the effectiveness of ...The evidence for viruses and the effectiveness of vaccines is overwhelming.<br /><br />https://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-mh-a-vaccine-denier-20150320-column.htmlGavin Andresenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10105284501947275111noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12429580.post-83639455131652131452020-08-02T13:27:38.128-04:002020-08-02T13:27:38.128-04:00That’s great that you can do math, Gavin. But if y...That’s great that you can do math, Gavin. But if your assumptions are wrong your conclusions are wrong. <br /><br />https://www.scribd.com/document/471185027/Paper-Virus-Lanka-002<br /><br />The field of virology would barely exist were it not for the vaccine racket. It’s based on junk science and bought-and-paid-for conclusions.mmhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03730003256289638920noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12429580.post-13296112706869306932020-06-03T18:40:12.315-04:002020-06-03T18:40:12.315-04:00Yes, I'm making a point about how money is rem...Yes, I'm making a point about how money is removed from the system. The point is that the Fed never has to sell bonds at all in order to drain money from the system. When bonds mature, the money is removed without the Fed ever selling a bond.<br /><br />For example, $2.5 trillion of the Fed's Treasury bonds mature within 5 years, so by doing nothing the Fed could drain about 10% of the money from the system each year.<br /><br />While waiting for the money to be drained as bonds mature, they could disincentivize lending by banks and shadow banks, which would reduce available credit and bring inflation down.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13806977799858128198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12429580.post-86783306816776532882020-06-03T16:46:29.494-04:002020-06-03T16:46:29.494-04:00Why did I predict it would be a big deal in Februa...Why did I predict it would be a big deal in February, before the rest of America realized that? As soon as I saw the reports of asymptomatic spread I thought there was no way we were going to contain it.<br /><br />Or how did I get 25million as the number of dead? I assumed 2 to3billion infected and a 1% fatality rate. I think I’ll be wrong— the fatality rate is probably lower than that, and some of the treatments look like they’ll bring it down to maybe 0.2%.Gavin Andresenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10105284501947275111noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12429580.post-24309345776859506912020-06-03T15:11:13.774-04:002020-06-03T15:11:13.774-04:00Debt defaults against banks? I think I see how tha...Debt defaults against banks? I think I see how that decreases the money supply indirectly (less money created because of less bank lending), but if you owe me $100 then default on that debt (because you spent that $100 on something and can’t pay me back) I don’t think that affects the money supply at all.<br />Gavin Andresenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10105284501947275111noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12429580.post-23664207153783292612020-06-03T15:05:42.696-04:002020-06-03T15:05:42.696-04:00Sure, the Treasury can pay back old bonds with eit...Sure, the Treasury can pay back old bonds with either tax money or money from new bonds. This blog post is about what might happen if inflation gets up above the 4% target rate, and the Fed decides it needs to quickly drain money out of the system.Gavin Andresenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10105284501947275111noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12429580.post-56153768210043677172020-06-03T13:32:21.661-04:002020-06-03T13:32:21.661-04:00Gavin, the Fed does not have to sell bonds to redu...Gavin, the Fed does not have to sell bonds to reduce the number of dollars in circulation. As the Fed's bond holdings mature, the Treasury repays principal to the Fed, removing money from circulation. <br /><br />Throughout 2018, the Fed did reduce its balance sheet in this manner (more precisely, via partial reinvestment). You can see this in your plot of the Fed's balance sheet above.<br /><br />Where does the Treasury get the money to repay the Fed? It could come from additional Treasury borrowing, in which case there is pressure for yields to rise. That is what happened in 2018. But in principle it can also come from an improved fiscal balance that can come with a stronger economy.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13806977799858128198noreply@blogger.com