Higher Cost almost always = Lower Demand

So far, I've been a dismal failure as a psychic; my predictions are about as reliable as a used Yugo. But it's looking good for this prediction:

The increase in the minimum wage will mean fewer teenagers working during the summer of 2008.

The headline from this morning's New York Times is "Toughest Summer Job This Year is Finding One."

I'm surprised that neither of the economists quoted in the article mentions the increase in the minimum wage as a possible cause; one of them says that there's really no problem, that fewer teens WANT low-paying summer jobs these days. The other blames a general economic slowdown.

It's probably a combination of factors; I wonder if somebody smarter than me will come up with a clever way of teasing out the effect of the minimum wage increase separately from all the other things going on in our economy...