tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12429580.post6505525123349596846..comments2024-03-26T06:28:09.125-04:00Comments on GavinThink: Standard unit of riskGavin Andresenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10105284501947275111noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12429580.post-77169973173691394552012-10-07T18:32:47.802-04:002012-10-07T18:32:47.802-04:00@Roger: The micromort only measures risk of death ...@Roger: The micromort only measures risk of death where the consequence, death, is constant and only the probability of that outcome varies. But when death isn't the outcome, that doesn't mean that there isn't an unfortunate consequence. Really, the micromort is just a probability unit, rather than a risk unit.<br /><br />So, a universal risk unit would have to somehow include and balance differently unfortunate consequences. Death could have a coefficient of 1, long-term/permanent coma/brain-damage 0.9, total body paralysis 0.8, etc. I realize that there's some subjectivity there, but with some crowd-sourcing we might arrive at some acceptable coefficients. So, for a given activity or change in conditions, the universal risk unit would measure the sum of the (change in) probabilities of any of those consequences each times their respective coefficients.<br /><br />Sound good?KLPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11273080859576943967noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12429580.post-70395072576034211542012-09-21T11:31:46.662-04:002012-09-21T11:31:46.662-04:00The standard unit of risk is the micromort, which ...The standard unit of risk is the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Micromort" rel="nofollow">micromort</a>, which represents a one-in-a-million increment in the risk of death. <br /><br />When faced with an economic choice, people are willing to pay (on average) somewhere around $50 for each micromort reduction in risk.Roger Brownehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17862544574010465032noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12429580.post-73234822443692666962012-09-15T22:42:19.476-04:002012-09-15T22:42:19.476-04:00Risk is the combination of the probability that an...Risk is the combination of the probability that an unwanted event occurs and the severity of that event.<br /><br />The severity seems to be high (people can die) but is the same for all locations, so it's a question of occurrence. Frequency of bites per outside hour is a one-dimensional thing. You could even compare this to the frequency of having an accident per car hour. While there are probably somewhat suitable statistics for car accidents, there are surely none for mosquito bites. And without probabilities for the base events, the overall frequency remains unknown.<br />Thomashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17618699886847481349noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12429580.post-59561581942581172252012-09-15T03:29:26.936-04:002012-09-15T03:29:26.936-04:00This is the folly that got us into the financial c...This is the folly that got us into the financial crisis: the illusion that risk is a scalar, one-dimensional thing.<br /><br />I have bad news for you: it isn't.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12429580.post-20994808937292033882012-09-14T17:15:02.050-04:002012-09-14T17:15:02.050-04:00What about just simple percentage odds?
"We ...What about just simple percentage odds?<br /><br />"We estimate that for this week the average person outside at dusk will have a X% chance of infection per minute, compared to the normal Y% per minute."<br /><br />The thing about risk is that different events will cost a different amount for each individual.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12429580.post-67191861680095256472012-09-14T13:02:06.385-04:002012-09-14T13:02:06.385-04:00I was listening to a Radiolab about pain recently,...I was listening to a Radiolab about pain recently, and apparently there have been efforts to create a standard unit of pain, as well. Strikes me as similar.AlexKGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14136445267281522466noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12429580.post-44264495597388448242012-09-14T02:27:31.354-04:002012-09-14T02:27:31.354-04:00Interesting, posted to Quora.
http://www.quora.co...Interesting, posted to Quora.<br /><br />http://www.quora.com/Risk/What-could-be-a-standard-unit-of-risk<br /><br />BTW, you should really join the site, it's the best site in the world (perhaps bitcointalk comes second :)).<br /><br />If you do, please follow me at http://www.quora.com/Ron-Grossripper234http://ripper234.com/noreply@blogger.com