Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.It's that time of year again; time for me to give my predictions a reality check and to once again learn that I'm overconfident.
-- Niels Bohr
Jonathan scores me 2 out of 8; I think I deserve a score of 5.5 out of 10. Here's how I figure it:
I got 2 things 100% right:
6. General Motors will declare bankruptcy after getting billions more dollars of bailout money.
I wouldn't have predicted that we'd STILL be giving GM money AFTER they declared bankruptcy, but just today the news is that GMAC, the financing arm of GM, is getting $3.8billion more in bailout money.
9. Lance Armstrong will not win the Tour de France again.
Maybe he'll win the 2010 Tour.
Completely wrong about these 3:
1. Oil prices will continue to be wildly volatile; oil will cost more than $100 per barrel again on at least one day in 2009.
They were volatile, but didn't get much above $80 per barrel.
7. Now that Home Depot is open, Rocky's Ace Hardware in Hadley and Leader Home Center in Amherst will close in 2009.
Nope, both still open.
10. I'll only get 7 of these 10 predictions right.
By my count, if I'd got one more completely right, this one would've been correct, too. (I was really hoping to get exactly 7 of the other predictions right, in which case the tenth prediction would be neither right nor wrong, but would be a logical paradox).
Too soon to be sure, but I was probably wrong:
3. The economic recession will last through the entire year.
Unemployment is still high, and they keep revising the GDP numbers down, and the National Bureau of Economic Research hasn't yet said that the recession is over, but I predict that I'll be wrong on this one.
I'd give myself full credit for these three:
4. Conservatives will claim that the stimulus is causing the recession to last longer.
5. Progressives will claim that without the stimulus we'd be in the Second Great Depression.
Jonathan thinks those don't count as predictions, since that's what conservatives and progressives were saying BEFORE the stimulus passed.
8. Mark's Meadow school in Amherst will be closed.
I think I got this right; the school committee did vote to close the school, and it will, barring a miracle, be closed after the 2009-2010 school year ends.
Stuff I got half right:
2. Congress will pass, and Obama will sign, an economic stimulus package larger than $900 billion.
I think I should get half-credit for this one; the stimulus did pass, it was just 13% smaller than I expected ("only" 787 billion dollars).
What's going to happen in 2010? I dunno. My crystal ball isn't very reliable; I think I'll try reading tea leaves (organic, fair-trade, of course) this year.